The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be a challenging one, with various climate factors coming into play. As of the latest forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-average season, with 14-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). These numbers are based on the ongoing La Niña event, which is expected to influence the Atlantic hurricane season, and the current state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is in its warm phase.
Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak season typically occurring between mid-August and late October. The 2025 season is forecast to be more active than the 30-year average (1991-2020), which saw 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes per year. The increased activity is attributed to several factors, including warmer sea surface temperatures, a stronger African easterly jet, and a more favorable wind shear pattern.
Key Points
- Predicted above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season with 14-19 named storms
- Expected 6-10 hurricanes, with 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
- La Niña event and warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) contribute to increased activity
- Peak season anticipated between mid-August and late October
- Warm sea surface temperatures, stronger African easterly jet, and favorable wind shear pattern support forecast
Factors Influencing the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is influenced by several climate factors, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the AMO, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The ongoing La Niña event, which is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, is expected to contribute to an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Additionally, the warm phase of the AMO, which is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, is also expected to play a role in the increased activity.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Hurricane Activity
ENSO is a complex climate phenomenon that involves fluctuations in the temperature of the surface waters in the eastern Pacific. The two main phases of ENSO are El Niño and La Niña, which have opposite effects on Atlantic hurricane activity. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña tends to enhance it. The current La Niña event is expected to continue into the summer and early fall, which should support an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity.
| Climate Factor | Influence on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
|---|---|
| La Niña | Enhances activity |
| Warm phase of AMO | Contributes to increased activity |
| North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) | Can either enhance or suppress activity, depending on phase |
Regional Hurricane Outlook
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast also includes regional outlooks for different parts of the basin. The Gulf Coast and Southeastern United States are expected to be at a higher risk for hurricane landfalls, due to the predicted track of the storms. The Northeastern United States and the Canadian Maritimes are also expected to be at risk, although to a lesser extent.
Implications for Coastal Communities
The predicted above-average activity in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has significant implications for coastal communities. It is essential for residents and visitors to be prepared for the possibility of hurricane landfalls, with adequate supplies, evacuation plans, and insurance coverage. Additionally, coastal communities should take steps to mitigate the effects of storm surge, flooding, and strong winds, such as implementing flood-control measures and reinforcing infrastructure.
What is the predicted number of named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
+The predicted number of named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is 14-19.
What climate factors are influencing the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast?
+The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is influenced by the ongoing La Niña event, the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
What regions are expected to be at a higher risk for hurricane landfalls during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
+The Gulf Coast and Southeastern United States are expected to be at a higher risk for hurricane landfalls, due to the predicted track of the storms.
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